Chiefs -3 (-120)

I’m amazed to see that this line is still as low as it is. The Chiefs absolutely crushed the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, and quite frankly I can’t see how any team would be capable of stopping Kansas City right now. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce continue to dominate opposing defenses, and the Buccaneers aren’t exactly known for being stout defenders of the pass. Granted, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to the Super Bowl (just watch either game between the Patriots and Giants for proof on that), but I just can’t see how Tampa Bay will be able to keep up with Kansas City.

Tom Brady has had his struggles during the playoffs, including when he threw three interceptions against the Packers last week, and I think this Chiefs defense is vastly underrated. They did a tremendous job in coverage against the Bills last week and caused Josh Allen all kinds of problems. I expect more of that here and, all things considered, the Chiefs should win this one by a touchdown.

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How To Bet On Fanduel

Under 56.5 points (-115)

Picking the under in my Bills vs. Chiefs same game parlay is what cost me last time, but I’m sticking with it here. After all, 56.5 is a seriously high line considering neither defense is a slouch. As I just mentioned, the Chiefs defense has played really well so far in the playoffs, shutting down Allen and severely limiting the production of Baker Mayfield. Further, Brady hasn’t played nearly as well as he was at the end of the regular season and could be in for another tough night here.

Fanduel Same Game Parlay Not Working

Of course, it’s hard to come up with reasons to doubt the Chiefs’ offense, but the Bucs are renowned for their run defense and I’m sure defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will have used the past two weeks to come up with ways of limiting Mahomes’ production. This could very well wind up being a shootout and still not feature 57 points. It may send your nerves sky-high, but add the under to this same game parlay.

Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown (-160)

Let’s not make this any more complicated than it has to be. Earlier this season, Tyreek Hill posted 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers and has been phenomenal in the playoffs so far. In fairness, he hasn’t actually found the endzone in his last three games, but surely he’s due to find it again soon. The Bucs defense has already shown it can’t handle Hill, and even if Bowles opts to have him double covered he should still have a few opportunities to score a touchdown. He’s had 17 total receptions in his last two games, and should once again feature heavily in Kansas City’s offense. If the Chiefs do wind up scoring a bundle of points, bank on Hill to be responsible for at least six of them.

Cameron Brate to score a touchdown (+250)

Adding Cameron Brate to score a touchdown may seem like a bit of a wild card but I think it makes a lot of sense, especially at the odds available. The Chiefs defense allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season (nine) and in the playoffs so far has struggled to contain Cleveland’s David Njoku and Buffalo’s Dawson Knox. Those two combined for 10 receptions across those two games and Brady has already shown during the playoffs he’s happy to throw the ball to Brate — the tight end has 11 receptions for 149 yards in the playoffs so far. He found the endzone against Green Bay last time and may serve as a good option for Brady to throw to if Gronk is covered. This one really bumps up the odds of our same game parlay and is worth taking a chance on.

• Make sure you also read about our best player props for the Kansas City Chiefs and for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers